Methods of forecasting vulnerability are ever evolving, while limited and inconsistent data, plus the complex interactions of policies, land-use changes, and ecological effects, mean that projections aren’t set in stone. While the seriousness of climate change is undeniable, it’s impossible to know exactly how those effects will play out for species vulnerability, especially far into the future.
But discussing which species are more, or less, able to survive climate change is disturbingly concrete. It may seem like just a thought experiment. Organisms that can produce many offspring quickly may have a better shot at avoiding extinction. This is partly because humans reproduce agonisingly slowly and generally just one or two at a time – as do some other favourite animals, like pandas. Even with our extraordinary capacity for innovation and adaptability, humans, it turns out, probably won’t be among the survivors. I’ve just asked Gray, a plant molecular biologist at the University of Sheffield, which species she thinks would be the last ones standing if we don’t take transformative action on climate change. I think we’ll go quite early on,” says Julie Gray with a laugh.